AUG 2010 – AUSTRALIAN JOB PROFILE

MAY 2010 – RUIN

 The Unemployment Profiles from May 2009 to May 2010

 The recession is well and truly over, with demand for high SES jobs now so high that unemployment in May 2010 in some rich inner city suburbs was heading down towards two percent and demand driven inflation must now be a real concern for the Reserve Bank.

While demand is strong for better paid jobs, the lower paid jobs boosted by the fiscal and monetary stimulus are fading, relative to skilled white collar workers and tertiary trained professionals. This would be a real concern for the Government.

During the depths of the downturn, in April 2009, these relativities between high and low SES workers were so squeezed as to be almost nonexistent.

Read Full Report –Regional Unemployment Index ( RUIN ) for May 2010

FEB 2010 – RUIN – LGAQ

Regional Unemployment Index (RUIN) – February 2010
Sponsored by Local Government Association of Queensland.

The picture to February 2010.

Since the series began in November 2007 we have seen five basic changes, outlined in the monthly profiles below.

From February/March 2008, when seasonally adjusted unemployment nationally was low, the unemployment profile of part time and high SES workers began to rise, meaning that areas containing these high SES workers started to lose jobs before national unemployment began to rise.

Higher SES workers are typically in industry groups such as Professional Consultants (correlation between the Unemployment Profile for high SES workers and Professional Consultants was plus 0.96). Consultants typically have the most casual employment contracts and are probably the easiest industry group to sack. At this time, interest rates were high and getting higher; mixed signals appeared in other economic indicators and Government fiscal policy was reasonably neutral.

Read Full Report –LGAQ – Regional Unemployment Index (RUIN)  – February 2010

Aug 2009 – RUIN – LGAQ

Regional Unemployment Index (RUIN) for August 2009
Sponsored by the Logan Government Association of Queensland

The picture in August.

The August unemployment figures show a net 240,000 Australians have lost full time jobs since November, due to the recession, while the stimulus has helped to create 168,000 jobs.

Our profiling shows the full time jobs lost were overwhelmingly skilled blue collar, clerical and professional, while the part time jobs created tended to be unskilled and paid minimum wages.

As well as providing jobs for the unemployed, between last November and August, the stimulus even pulled an extra 86,000 underemployed Australians back into the workforce. Where Peter Costello had begun a trend to boost workforce numbers with the sticks of Work choices and Welfare to Work, Wayne Swan has accelerated it, aided by the freezing of minimum wages and the carrot of a $95 billion stimulus.

There’s some evidence in the profiles that the trend for growth in minimum wage jobs leading up to the 2007 election helped disguise an increase in unemployment by higher SES groups which can be the first sign of an impending recession. So the RBA may have been cranking up interest rates in response to increased flexibility in the Labour market, rather than to a strengthening of the Labour market.

Read Full Report –Regional Unemployment Index (RUIN) – August 2009

May 2009 – RUIN – LGAQ

Regional Unemployment Index (RUIN) – May 2009
Sponsored by Local Government Association of Queensland.

Reading the report

From the top, we have included some stereotype charts, which are a handy demographic snapshot of changes during the past 12 months. Then we have the Correlation charts, which are the main substance of the report. The things to watch for include possible impacts of the Government’s financial stimulus which seems to have worked favourably on lower income groups, and demographic variables running parallel with the increase in unemployment. The latter have so far been the high SES groups, as well as migrants (whatever their SES) and the internationally exposed tourism industry. For example, when tourist numbers declined from Japan, we saw a rise in the unemployment profile from Japanese born persons, Japanese speakers and Buddhists. We always try to look for these multiple links and burrow back up the causal chain to infer some sort of economic drivers. We stress we are looking at inferential statistics here and weaker correlations have a stronger likelihood of being due simply to chance factors.

Read FULL REPORT – Regional Unemployment Index (RUIN) – May 2009 

Nov 2008 – RUIN

Regional Unemployment Index (RUIN) November – 2008

Towards the end of 2008, it was apparent Australia was entering a major downturn which could become a recession. This was seen as an excellent opportunity for a  demographic profiling company like ADS to take a closer look at labour market statistics at a regional level, showing profiles of the demographic groups most likely to be impacted first and most severely by the GFC, to monitor the downturn and to profile the first groups to lead the recovery.

Losing a job, making ends meet, and getting another job are pretty significant events in the lives of Australians and worthy of study. A number of statisticians and mappers have assisted in the project, which has been largely pro bono and quarterly reports have been prepared when time allowed. We thank Business Geographics and Dr Otto Hellwig of MDS and also the Local Government Association of Queensland, The Australian Financial Review and The Australian, for their support at various times since 2008.

The reports have been prepared as an education exercise and are not intended to be used for any other purposes, including as an advisory tool for business and ADS takes no responsibility for those who use it for these purposes. The sampling errors are often large and raw regional data cannot easily be adjusted for seasonal trends.

Read Full Report –Regional Unemployment Index (RUIN) – Nov 2008

May Regional Unemployment Index

The May 2010 Regional Unemployment Index (RUIN) shows that the 2009 downturn is well and truly over, with demand for high SES jobs now so high that unemployment is heading down towards two percent in some wealthier suburbs and demand driven inflation should now be a real concern for the Reserve Bank.

 ADS RUIN REPORT May 2010.pdf

Disclaimer: The Labour Market reports and associated maps have been prepared as an educational and public relations exercise and have not been designed as an advisory tool for business and we take no responsibility for those who use either of them for these purposes. The sampling errors for smaller Labour Force regions are often large and the raw figures used cannot be easily adjusted for seasonal trends. The statistical significance of the profiles also need to be considered. We repeat, caution is urged in any interpretation of these statistics. We acknowledge and thank the Australian Bureau of Statistics for the provision of original data, Dr Otto Helwig of MDS for the HES micro simulation modelling and Phil Henry of Business Geographics for the mapping.