Category Archives: QLD

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Queensland vote a pivotal moment for Greens, as it analyses the electoral fortunes of the Greens since the party rose from the ashes of the old Australian Democrats 20 years ago.

Queensland vote a pivotal moment for Greens

Category:Election Profiles,QLD,Qld Election 2024Tags : 

I wrote a Queensland State election preview for the Australian Financial Review which appeared at the weekend and the link is here, albeit behind the AFR paywall.  
https://www.afr.com/politics/federal/queensland-vote-a-pivotal-moment-for-greens-20241024-p5kkyl

The story is headlined:  Queensland vote a pivotal moment for Greens,  as it analyses the electoral fortunes of the Greens since the party rose from the ashes of the old Australian Democrats 20 years ago. The story explored the demographics underlying the fact that the Greens’ vote has remained frozen at between eight and ten percent since the early noughties and speculated on what the new aggressive Greens approach to the ALP could mean last weekend for both the Greens and the ALP. And of course for the LNP.

On Sunday the team at ADS did some preliminary follow-up profiling of the most recent actual votes and swings for the two major parties, after preferences, and for the Greens Primary Vote and Swing and I wrote a review of this research for the AFR which you can find here:
https://www.afr.com/politics/labor-can-take-no-comfort-from-queensland-election-20241027-p5kllo

The article is headed Labor can take no comfort from Queensland Election. The implications of the results for Queensland Federal seats are canvassed and this now depends largely on how effectively the new Premier David Crisafulli governs the state during the next six months and on whether State Labor can accept the verdict of the electorate and move to recover its lost support outside the southeast corner of the State. The story outlines the demographics the Greens lost, in pursuit of primary votes from Labor by blocking Labor Legislation in the Senate with the support of the Coalition, rather than by working with the Labor Government to secure acceptable amendments. The story also charts some of the impacts of the election boondoggles offered by the State ALP Government before the election. Did any of them work?

You can do some of your own analysis of these questions by looking at the map prepared by our ADS spatial science expert Dr Jeanine McMullan. https://egs-au.maps.arcgis.com/apps/webappviewer/index.html?id=3e7a2e2105974c06bf22ea7d4991a32f Jeanine has published the Esri map to the public, so access is free. It shows the ALP/LNP 2PP votes and swings and the Greens Primary votes and Swings. To help you get some feel for the impact of the State seat results for the next Federal election, Jeanine has superimposed the boundaries of Queensland Federal seats over the state seat results.


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Last weekend The Australian Financial Review published my short review of the role of religion and ethnicity in Australian politics since the 1960s.

John Stanley & John Black 28th October, 2024

Category:Demographics,Election Profiles,QLD,Qld Election 2024Tags : 

I was interviewed by 2GB’s John Stanley this week, following my articles in the Australian Financial Review and my social media post on last weekend’s Queensland State election.  

The interview with John was longer than usual and gave us a chance to deal a bit more in depth with the political implications of the State election for the major political parties and for the Federal election, due next May.

You can listen to the interview here:
https://omny.fm/shows/nights/john-john-black-28th-october


View LinkedIn Social Media Post – 28th October 2024


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2015 – Qld State Election Report

Category:Election Profiles,Maps - Elections,QLD,Qld Election 2015

A week after the election on January 31, it is still unclear which of the two major parties will form a Government. The most likely outcome is a minority Labor Government supported by Independent Peter Wellington.

Labor candidates won an estimated 50.9 percent of the two party preferred (2PP) vote, but Labor appears likely to win only 44 out of the 89 seats. On the same state boundaries in 2009, Labor Premier Anna Bligh won a comfortable majority of 51 seats with 50 percent of the 2PP vote.

This failure in 2015 to translate a majority of the 2PP Labor vote into a majority of seats came about because Labor failed to win middle class and professional voters in aspirational marginal seats on the Gold Coast and in Brisbane.

The major driver of the swing against the LNP appears to have been the current high net dissatisfaction levels of LNP Leader Campbell Newman and Federal Coalition Leader Tony Abbott.

Campbell Newman’s personal vote in his own seat of Ashgrove was minus 5.5 percent and this is consistent with the impact of a net dissatisfaction rating of minus 23 percent, which was recorded by Newspoll on January 29.

Read Full Report – Qld State Election Report 2015.

Download spreadsheet showing :

Qld State Performance, Qld State Trends, Aust. State Predictions and Federal Seat Predictions.

Map showing predicted alp 2pp vote by neighbourhood (sa1) based on the Qld State Election.

The map shows the Predicted ALP 2PP Vote by SA1 based on the QLD state election with the Federal electorates overlaid. You can search for an electorate and get the results for the electorate. There is also a separate layer available showing the 2pp swing to the ALP in QLD state electorates as per the original map.

 

2015 - Qld State Election Report


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DEMOGRAPHIC PROFILE OF QLD VOTES IN 2012

Category:Election Profiles,Maps - Elections,QLD,Qld Election 2012

The strongest swings against the ALP in 2012 were from Labor’s own 2009 Labor voters. This swing correlation of minus 0.67 from Labor’s Queensland state 2009 support base was even bigger than the swing correlation of minus 0.57 against the NSW ALP from its support base last year. In other words, the biggest swings against Labor were in its safest seats.

On Election Day, March 24, Labor lost 15.6 percent of its 2009 primary vote, taking it from 42.3 percent to 26.8 percent. This is more than one in three former state Labor voters. Of the 89 seats contested by Labor, the Labor Party did not win more than 50 percent of the primary vote in any seat. The highest primary vote was 47.4 percent in Woodridge, one of the eight seats retained by Labor.

Read Full Report – QLD STATE ELECTION REPORT April 2012.pdf

 


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Apr 2009 – Qld Election Report

Category:Election Profiles,QLD

Our ADS Elaborate modelling explained 96 percent of the variance in the 2PP ALP vote at the Queensland elections on March 21, 2009. The modelling showed swings to Labor in poor country towns and outer working class suburbs were led by those voters receiving the biggest slice of the $4 billion dollars in Rudd stimulus cheques in the ten days before the poll, wheras the swings against Labor were led by the higher income inner suburban families who were paying for it.

file icon pdf QLD STATE ELECTION REPORT April 2009_5.pdf