If Labor’s 2030 carbon emissions target is blocked by the Greens in the Senate, most Canberra Observers would expect Anthony Albanese to crab walk away. But what could happen in a double dissolution if he called their bluff, to end the Climate Wars started by the Greens in 2009?
🔗 https://www.elaborate.net.au/PDF/Financial Review, Friday, July 15, 2022, pages from 43 to 43.pdf
📷AFR
The big winners and losers in the 2022 Election can be seen in our online interactive ADS 2022 Election Map.
The five big players in 2022 were the traditional majors: the ALP and the Coalition, but also the minor parties, like the Greens, the Teals and the Others (including One Nation and the UAP).
The influence of the minor parties in 2022 was wielded not so much through their preferences, but through the sheer size of their primary votes, as the support base for the major parties shrunk, with the ALP going backwards in some of its once-safest seats in Victoria to One Nation, the UAP and the Teals and the Liberal Party copping an absolute hiding in its wealthiest seats to Independents and in its former stronghold of Western Australia.
Teal campaigns run by the Climate 200 group wiped out the Green primary vote when they both ran in safe Liberal like Kooyong, but where there was no Teal candidate, as we saw in three Brisbane River seats won by the Greens, the Liberal primary vote losses switched directly to the Greens.
The primary vote for the Others group exceeded 20 percent after ten percent plus swings to the minor parties in normally-solid Labor seats across Victoria, NSW and Tasmania.
While the Liberal Party has a problem in its safest seats with the higher-income Teals, the ALP has a problem in its safest, lower-income seats, with right wing minor parties.
The interactive Esri map also shows an innovative cube layer for two of the key demographic drivers for the Teal vote: Female Professionals and Top Quartile income earners, so you can see how these two variables interact.
See story in The Australian Financial Review
Click to view interactive ADS 2022 Election Map
If you want to know which federal seats are most likely to swing strongly to the Teal candidates at the Federal election on May 21, check out the 🔗Map below.
The map shows the percentage of top income quartile persons in 2022 Federal seats in darker shades of teal and is modelled by ADS from the latest available Australian Tax Office data.
Demographic break downs of national Newspoll summaries published in The Australian between early 2020 and the start of the 2022 election campaign, indicate that about one in eight voters in this top income quartile had swung their previously strong support in primary vote terms from the Coalition, directly across to Voices or “Teal” candidates, where a Teal candidate was available.
To put this in perspective, in early 2020, nearly half of all voters in this income group cast their vote for Coalition candidates and in the first quarter of 2022, this figure was down to one in three.
While this may well be the national sentiment among top income earners, where no Teal candidate is available at this election, there is still likely to be a smaller Two Party Preferred swing from the Coalition to Labor from about one in 12 voters among this group. This disaffection from top income workers represents serious hurt for Liberal MPs in what have been their traditional strongholds.
We’ve been looking at the demographic breakdowns by income in individual seat polls and nothing we’ve seen so far contradicts the above trend up to the second week of the campaign.
Nonetheless, we will be watching future Newspoll summaries, presuming another one is available before the election.
Monday 20th June, 2022
Party Machines Conking Out
by John Black – AFR – Editorial and Opinion
 | To Read click link |
| 🔗 Financial Review, Monday, June 20, 2022, pages from 36 to 37 -1.pdf
|
Image: AFR : https://www.afr.com
2022 Federal Election Swing Map
The big winners and losers in the 2022 Election can be seen in our online interactive ADS 2022 Election Map.
The five big players in 2022 were the traditional majors: the ALP and the Coalition, but also the minor parties, like the Greens, the Teals and the Others (including One Nation and the UAP).
The influence of the minor parties in 2022 was wielded not so much through their preferences, but through the sheer size of their primary votes, as the support base for the major parties shrunk, with the ALP going backwards in some of its once-safest seats in Victoria to One Nation, the UAP and the Teals and the Liberal Party copping an absolute hiding in its wealthiest seats to Independents and in its former stronghold of Western Australia.
Teal campaigns run by the Climate 200 group wiped out the Green primary vote when they both ran in safe Liberal like Kooyong, but where there was no Teal candidate, as we saw in three Brisbane River seats won by the Greens, the Liberal primary vote losses switched directly to the Greens.
The primary vote for the Others group exceeded 20 percent after ten percent plus swings to the minor parties in normally-solid Labor seats across Victoria, NSW and Tasmania.
While the Liberal Party has a problem in its safest seats with the higher-income Teals, the ALP has a problem in its safest, lower-income seats, with right wing minor parties.
The interactive Esri map also shows an innovative cube layer for two of the key demographic drivers for the Teal vote: Female Professionals and Top Quartile income earners, so you can see how these two variables interact.
See story in The Australian Financial Review
Click to view interactive ADS 2022 Election Map
2022 Election Results – Summary for EGS Clients
Friday 27th May, 2022
by EGS Founder John Black
Did a short presentation with Saul Eslake today on the 2022 election results and the implications for Education Geographics Client Schools, with particular relevance to the election of new Teal MPs. It makes interesting reading.
🔗 https://www.elaborate.net.au/PDF/Presentation 27 May 2022.pdf
Election Profiles 2022
Monday 23rd May, 2022
🎙 John Black: Election earthquake signals death of major parties
episode from ABC “RN Breakfast” with Patricia Karvelas
 | To Listen click link |
| 🔗https://www.abc.net.au/radionational/programs/breakfast/election-earthquake-signals-death-of-major-parties/13893828 Guest: John Black, former Labor Senator and Chief Executive of Australian Development Strategies |
Image: ABC RN : https://www.abc.net.au/radionational/programs/breakfast/
Election Profiles 2022
Monday 23rd May, 2022
Women’s teal wave could keep breaking in 2025
by John Black – AFR – Editorial and Opinion
| To Read click link |
| 🔗 Financial Review, Monday, May 23, 2022, pages from 13 to 13.pdf |
Image: AFR : https://www.afr.com
1 Day to Go – Election Profiles 2022
Friday 20th May, 2022
Coalition Closing Gap On Labor
by John Black – AFR – Editorial and Opinion
| To Read click link |
| 🔗 Financial Review, Friday, May 20, 2022, pages from 39 to 39.pdf |
Image: AFR : https://www.afr.com
2 days to Go – Election Profiles 2022
Due to popular demand (my wife Jeanine thought it was a good idea), I’m re-posting the PDF I prepared a few months ago for my Australian Financial Review article of February 15 on the rise of the Teal vote and the associated decline of the primary vote for the major parties. It may help you on election night to understand why the major party primary votes have fallen, and also to follow the larger swings to Labor in seats where popular Coalition members have retired, such as Bennelong or Casey.
Monday 14th February, 2022
Political Voices: Past, Present & Future
 | To Read click link |
| 🔗 https://www.elaborate.net.au/political-voices-past-present-and-future/
|
3 days to Go – Election Profiles 2022
Wednesday 18th May,2022
How House Prices Reflect The Way You Vote
by John Black – AFR – Editorial and Opinion
| To Read click link |
| 🔗 Financial Review, Wednesday, May 18, 2022, pages from 14 to 14.pdf |
Image: AFR : https://www.afr.com
5 Days to Go – Election Profiles 2022
Monday 16th May, 2022
🎙 John Black: Election Campaign Enters Final Sprint
episode from ABC “RN Breakfast” with Patricia Karvelas
| To Listen click link |
| 🔗https://www.abc.net.au/radionational/programs/breakfast/election-campaign-enters-final-sprint/13883250 Guest: John Black, former Labor Senator and Chief Executive of Australian Development Strategies |
Image: ABC RN : https://www.abc.net.au/radionational/programs/breakfast/
1 Week to Go – Election Profiles 2022
Friday 13th, May 2022
As tradies deserted ALP, so career women turn Liberal seats teal
by John Black – AFR – Editorial and Opinion
| To Read click link |
| 🔗 Financial Review Friday May 13, 2022 Page 43 snip to PDF.pdf |
Image: AFR : https://www.afr.com
3 Weeks to Go – Election Profiles 2022
Wednesday 4th May 2022
Inner Brissie could have gone teal
by John Black – AFR – Editorial and Opinion
| To Read click link |
| 🔗 Financial Review, Wednesday, May 4, 2022, pages from 46 to 46.pdf |
Image: AFR : https://www.afr.com
3 Weeks to Go – Election Profiles 2022
Monday 2nd May, 2022
🎙 John Black: Labor on track for win
episode from ABC “RN Breakfast” with Patricia Karvelas
| To Listen click link |
| 🔗https://www.abc.net.au/radionational/programs/breakfast/labor-on-track-for-election-win/13862818 Guest: John Black, former Labor Senator and Chief Executive of Australian Development Strategies |
Image: ABC RN : https://www.abc.net.au/radionational/programs/breakfast/
4 Weeks to Go – Election Profiles 2022
Thursday 21 April, 2022
Albo’s not kicking with the wind
by John Black – AFR – Editorial and Opinion
| To Read click link |
| 🔗 Financial Review, Thursday, April 21, 2022, pages from 38 to 38.pdf |
Image: AFR : https://www.afr.com
3 Weeks to Go to Pre-Poll Voting
Tuesday 19th April, 2022
 | Starts May 9, 2022, 12 days before voting day on May 21, 2022. |
| 🔗 https://www.ecq.qld.gov.au/how-to-vote/how-to-cast-your-vote |
4 Weeks to Go – Election Profiles 2022
Tuesday 19th April, 2022
🎙 John Black: Election still Labor’s to lose
episode from ABC “RN Breakfast” with Patricia Karvelas
| To Listen click link |
| 🔗https://www.abc.net.au/radionational/programs/breakfast/john-black:-the-election-is-still-labors-to-lose/13844148 Guest: John Black, former Labor Senator and Chief Executive of Australian Development Strategies |
Image: ABC RN : https://www.abc.net.au/radionational/programs/breakfast/
6 Weeks to Go – Election Profiles 2022
Tuesday 13th April, 2022
Too soon to call, but the demographics favour labor
by John Black – AFR – Editorial and Opinion
| To Read click link |
| 🔗 Financial Review, Wednesday, April 13, 2022, pages from 43 to 43.pdf |
Image: AFR : https://www.afr.com
6 Weeks to Go – Election Profiles 2022
Monday 11th April, 2022
🎙 “Are the published opinion polls correct?”
episode from ABC “RN Breakfast” withPatricia Karvelas
| To Listen click link |
| 🔗 https://www.abc.net.au/radionational/programs/breakfast/are-the-published-opinion-polls-correct/13835438 Guest: John Black, former Labor Senator and Chief Executive of Australian Development Strategies |
Available now through the ABC listen App – bit.ly/ABCradioApp
Image: ABC RN : https://www.abc.net.au/radionational/programs/breakfast/
11 Weeks to Go – Election Profiles 2022
Tuesday 29th March, 2022
Don’t order the sympathy cards for Morrison just yet
by John Black – AFR – Editorial and Opinion
| To Read click link |
| 🔗 Financial Review, Tuesday, March 29, 2022, pages from 39 to 39.pdf |
Image: AFR : https://www.afr.com
14 Weeks to Go – Election Profiles 2022
Tuesday 15th February, 2022
Women To Deliver Shock Election
by John Black – AFR – Editorial and Opinion
| To Read click link |
| 🔗 Financial Review, Tuesday, February 15, 2022, pages from 36 to 37.pdf |
Image: AFR : https://www.afr.com
14 Weeks to Go – Election Profiles 2022
Monday14th February, 2022
Political Voices: Past, Present & Future
| To Read click link |
| 🔗 https://www.elaborate.net.au/political-voices-past-present-and-future/ |
